Solar PV market trends expected to change

This was the outcome of the discussions of a group of top-level international experts on the solar PV industry worldwide, as part of Solar Plaza's Global Demand Conference, held under the umbrella of Valencia's 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference.

29/9/2008

Most participants agreed that trends are going to change in the industry. The most important finding is the fact that panel shortages seem to belong to the past, which will probably mean that solar panels are going to start a continuous drop leading to grid parity in numerous markets. The experts also pointed out that while European countries compete for the most attractive subsidy scheme, China, India and the US are trying to keep costs as low as possible. 

 

The conclusions regarding each national market are as follow:

 

Italy:

Some administrative barriers are still a barrier to faster growth in the solar PV market. 2008 will probably see 150 MW, with installed capacity roughly doubling for each of the next two years. Most of the solar PV facilities in the country are still smaller than 20 kW.

 

Greece:

The market development will strongly depend on the complexity of the new law, which is currently being discussed. Analysts expect the market to be at least ten times bigger in a couple of years (from a modest 10 MW expected for 2008).

 

France:

The French market is moving from the islands to the mainland. Currently the government and the industry are negotiating an increase in the rooftop tariff. The current goal is 1.1 GW by 2012 and 4.9 GW for 2020, even though the market last year was only 45 MW.

 

Spain:

Although at the time the conference was celebrated it was not known what the outcome of the new legislation was, everybody guessed that the government would introduce some last-minute change. They were right. Last Friday the new law was passed with better-than-expected feed-in-tariff and cap, which means that the country will from now on grow at moderate levels, reaching 10 GW by 2020, according to the government's goals.

 

Germany:

The government has just decided to lower the feed-in tariff. The market size for 2008 is estimated at 1,375 MW, up from 1,100 MW last year. The Germans have been able to keep on growing despite lower subsidies thanks to great drops in the price of systems.

 

United States:

Barak or McCain? The upcoming elections will naturally have a great influence on the market, which reached 305 MW in 2007 and is expected to hit 400 MW this year. Last week new tax breaks were approved, which means that the market will probably grow rapidly next year, once the uncertainty has been eliminated.

 

And outside the SolarPlaza event, it is worth mentioning the following markets:

 

Portugal:

According to the government, the yearly growth will be around 20% after having passed the latest legislation, one of the most favorable of the world. This year, the country will see a huge 42 MW plant being connected, representing most of the solar power connected this year in the country.

 

Austria:
The country launched its solar PV support program just this year. However, only 4 MW have been accepted, and analysts are expecting a new law soon.

 

United Kingdom:

Rumors point out that the British government might launch a feed-in tariff similar to the ones in Germany and Spain. The market is still tiny, with 2.7 MW connected in 2007 and around 10 MW in the current year.

 

Switzlerland:

The new, highly limiting legislation will only allow 4 MW per year, from the 6.5 MW installed last year. It will be applicable from 2010, reason why 2009 might still see a reasonable capacity installed.

Belgium:
Solar PV is popular in the country, with a capacity of 14 MW in 2007, and an estimated 20 - 25 MW expected for 2008. Several different programs are in place supporting solar energy in the country.

 

Canada:

The Canadian market is one of the most promising ones in the world. It only had 13.3 MW in 2007, but it is expected to have 20 MW this year and between 100 - 300 MW by 2010. They definitely have land for those amounts and more!

Australia:

They had 20 MW in 2007, and analysts expect the market to double this year. Together with Canada, it is one of the countries with the largest potential in the mid term.